Baylor Bears

Texas Tech at Baylor college basketball odds, picks and best bets

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (18-11, 9-7 in Big 12) play the Baylor Bears (25-3, 14-2) in their final regular-season meeting Monday at Ferrell Center at 9 p.m. ET. We analyze the Texas Tech-Baylor odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

Texas Tech at Baylor: Three things you need to know

  1. Baylor has lost two of its past three games, which includes a 64-61 loss to the Kansas Jayhawks Feb. 22, and an upset loss at the TCU Horned Frogs Saturday by a 75-72 score.
  2. Texas Tech has lost back-to-back games, including an embarrassing home upset at the hands of the Texas Longhorns by a 68-58 score Saturday. The losses caused the Red Raiders to fall out of the USA TODAY Sports’ men’s basketball coaches poll and has them currently in third place in the Big 12.
  3. Baylor has beaten Texas Tech, both outright and against the spread, in three of their previous four meetings, including 57-52 victory in the first game of the season (Jan. 7).

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Texas Tech at Baylor: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Baylor 72, Texas Tech 61

Moneyline (ML)

These two squads have similar attributes. They’re very good defensively—Baylor (-334) ranks fifth in the nation in opponent points per game and Texas Tech (+260) is 29th. They’re both average offensively—the Bears rank 169th in PPG for and the Red Raiders are ranked 134th.

Where Baylor has a decided edge is in the rebounding matchup. Texas Tech is ranked 291st in rebounds per game and Baylor is 58th in opponent rebounds per game. Plus, Baylor has a plus-5.9 rebound per game differential compared to Texas Tech’s minus-0.4 rebound per game differential. In what should be a defensive battle, this rebounding advantage could be major. This has caused me to not respect the Red Raiders’ upset potential so we’ll PASS ON THE MONEYLINE.

Against the Spread (ATS)

BAYLOR -7.5 (-106) is the only way to go if you’re betting the spread. The Bears have the best against the spread record versus ranked opponents in the Big 12 with a 5-2 ATS record and are tied with Kansas for the best ATS record against conference opponents at 11-5. Also, Texas Tech (+7.5, -115) doesn’t bounce back well from losses, at least not against the bookmakers’ lines, as they are 3-7 ATS following a loss. 

Over/Under (O/U)

Let’s TAKE the OVER 129.5 (-115) for the following reasons. First, the Over being set at -115 means the market is betting the Over and BetMGM is trying to get some balance in their Texas Tech-Baylor total handle. Second, the Over is 5-0 in the Bears’ last five games following a straight-up loss and 6-1 in the Red Raiders’ last seven games following an ATS loss. Third, the Over has cashed in two of the last three Texas Tech-Baylor contests.

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